Allan Lichtman, an American professor of history who broke through to the mainstream media barrier prior to the 2016 US presidential election by accurately predicting Donald Trump would defeat heavily favored Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, is gearing up for the 2024 election.

His 2016 prediction went against many mainstream polls and analyses at the time.

Shortly after Trump won the election, he sent Prof Lichtman a signed note. “Professor, congrats, good call,” it said.

As for the 2024 US presidential election, Prof Lichtman indicates he is not quite ready to lock in a prediction because the Democrat side is in turmoil. “I have not made my final prediction,” he said previously on his YouTube channel. “I hope to make it about the same time as I made it in 2020, which was August.”

Lichtman has correctly predicted every US election since 1984, with one discrepancy – the 2000 election between Al Gore, US vice president at the time, and George W Bush, who was governor of Texas.

In that case, while Gore won the popular vote, there was controversy over vote tallies (the famous “hanging chads”) in Florida. A Supreme Court decision gave Bush the electoral college victory and the presidency.

Lichtman insists that institutionalized polls have little predictive value at this stage in the election race.

“That’s the same kind of mistake that led the pollsters and pundits to be so dramatically wrong in 2016, to be wrong in 1988 and to be wrong in 2012,” he said.

Lichtman’s 13 keys to the White House

Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.

Contest: The candidate is nominated on the first ballot and wins at least two thirds of the delegate votes.

Incumbency: The sitting President is the party candidate.

Third party: A third-party candidate wins at least five per cent of the popular vote.

Short-term economy: The National Bureau of Economic Research has either not declared a recession, or has declared it over before the election.

Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two terms.

Policy change: The administration achieves a major policy change during the term comparable to the New Deal, under Franklin Roosevelt, or the first-term revolution under Ronald Reagan.

Social unrest: There is no social unrest during the term that is comparable to the upheavals of the post-civil war Reconstruction or of the 1960s, and is sustained or raises deep concerns about the unravelling of society.

Scandal: There is no broad recognition of a scandal that directly touches on the President.

Foreign or military failure: There is no major failure during the term comparable to Pearl Harbour or the Iran hostage crisis that appears to significantly undermine America’s national interests or threaten its standing in the world.

Foreign or military success: There is a major success during the term comparable to the winning of the Second World War or the Camp David Accords that significantly advances America’s national interests or its standing in the world.

Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is a national hero comparable to Ulysses Grant or Dwight Eisenhower, or is an inspirational candidate comparable to Mr Roosevelt or Mr Reagan.

Challenger charisma: The challenger party candidate is not a national hero comparable to Mr Grant or Mr Eisenhower and is not an inspirational candidate comparable to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.

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Loralyn ‘Dodie’ & Jack Dennis

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