America

Polls Wrong Again, Trump Favored to Win

If President Trump, truly a political outsider, wins this election, he will have taken down three of the most powerful political families in America: The Bushes, Clintons, and Bidens. 

COVID didn’t keep them down.

I can’t imagine why the Democrats are virtually hiding Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Biden has only taken six questions from the media in October. Kamala, none.

To think their liberal plan to keep the pandemic going long enough so voters would only cast ballots by mail will go down as one of the most ludicrous campaign strategies in history.

Breaking: We just learned President Trump is bringing Tony Bobulinski to the Nashville debate.

Bobulinski is Hunter Biden’s former business partner who has confirmed the multiple emails damaging to Joe Biden.

Hillary Clinton was a much stronger opponent than Joe Biden.

At this point in the 2016 presidential race, Hillary was 3.8% on a composite of polls from Real Clear Politics in “Top Battleground States.”

Today, Joe Biden is 4.1%.

But we all know how that turned out. The fact is, these polls–many controlled and manipulated–can’t tell us who will win. However, early voting is useful for comparing what the polls predicted with actual behavior.

Here are the very latest indicators and facts that are part of the equation to be considered.

Zogby said 36% of blacks approve of the president, as do 37% of Hispanics and 35% of Asians.

Approval among independent voters is also up, to 44%. And “intriguingly,” said Zogby, 23% of Democrats approve of Trump.

This is what polls, all favoring Democrats, predicted before early voting began:

Gallup showed Democrats pounding Republicans 62-28 (34 pt spread).

YouGov said Democrats would beat Republicans 65-40 (25 pt spread).

NPR/Marist feclared a 25 pt spread in favor of Democrats.

Current national numbers indicate  that early voting is much tighter than 2016, which was quite high. Democrats are running 51%, and Republicans are at 38%. This is a 13 point spread, well below the predicted poll margins and in Trump’s favor.

This can certainly change, but for now, Democrats are not getting anywhere close to what the polls predicted.

In 2016, Democrats cast 310,000 more votes than Republicans in the ENTIRE early voting period. That’s less than the exact same spread as of yesterday.

Republicans have won five straight days of early voting so far and are the odds-on favorite to win most among voters who voted in three of the past four elections: 

Republicans have 86% yet to vote while Democrats have 71.9% of their three-quarters voters remaining. This represents a 78,473 voter advantage for Republicans.

The Evangelical Vote

Ralph Reed’s Christian coalition has 22 million voters in swing states and 44 million in all states. They will engage heavily on election day to counteract Democrats tendency to harvest ballots.

30,000+ pray at Trump event.

The 81 percent of the evangelical vote that Trump received four years ago is the least he’ll receive. It’s likely to be closer to 85 percent.

White evangelical enthusiasm is at an all-time high. Trump should see 5 million to 10 million more votes from  white evangelicals who did not vote at all in 2016. Reed claimed that there were 31 million white evangelical votes for Trump four years ago.

Here are my current odds of a Trump victory per states.

95% or better: KS, SC, TX, GA, ID, ND, SD, WY, OK, AR, LA, MS, TN, WV.
80% or better: OH, IA, KS, MO
70% or better: VT, NB
60% or better: NC, AZ.
55% or better: MI, WI, PA.
50% or better: FL, MN.
45%+: NV, NH

20% or better: ME
15% or better: NM
10% or better: OR, CO
2% or less: CA, NY

Trump rallies are historical.

Three polls yesterday showed Biden at a 4-point or less lead nationally. Four points or under is a danger zone for Biden losing the electoral college:

IBD/TIPP: Biden +2.5,
Rasmussen: Biden +3
Harris X: Biden +4

Remember that Hillary lost with a +2.1% popular vote win.

The states I am most concerned about are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Just under them are Florida and North Carolina. Watch where Trump holds his rallies. They are key.

State observations:

Arizona

In 2018, Republicans won the early vote but lost the election. Trump visited Prescott and Tucson recently.
Trump will have more votes than he did in 2016.

Texas

Texas high school.

You won’t see this on CNN or the New York Times, but you will at Texas High School Football games. This is Midland Greenwood at Sweetwater on October 9, 2020 (Photo by Evan Ren).

Texas early voting and votes by mail dictate Republicans are up 13.7 percent from 2016.

Projected percentages from counties show Trump is favored 54.6% vs. Biden at 43.5%.

Statewide, Democrats are down 15.4 percent. Attorney General and DOJ are on the lookout for voter fraud. Expect some arrests.

Black vote is up .3 percent. Hispanic vote is up .1 percent.

In the important Tarrant County, Republicans are up 4.1 percent and Democrats are down 5.6 percent.

Florida
Early vote show Republicans 483,443 (+ 90,913) and Democrats 392,530 according to Florida Division of Elections (10/22 08:29 AM ET).

Trump will be voting this weekend in Florida.

Note that the Democratic  strongholds of Miami-Dade and Broward do not report live results. The most pivotal counties are, Jefferson, Pinellas, Monroe and St. Lucie. They went to Obama in 2008 and 2012, but pivoted dramatically in 2016. Collectively, they voted for Trump by more than 580k votes, and averaged a margin of victory of 11% for Trump.

It’s very interesting that the Republicans are only down 4% in Miami-Dade early voting. I’ve never seen it that close.

I’m most anxious to see final results in South Florida from the Latino votes. Cubans, Venezuelan and others are becoming very strong for Trump.

Early accumaltive tallies don’t tell who people voted for. It reveals which party they identify with:

Alachua
R 3,422
D 7,242

Brevard
R 20,659
D 12,157

Broward
R 22,173
D 43,158

Clay
R 14,438
D 4,557

Collier
R 13,324
D 4,898

Duval
R 29,352
D 37,507

Escambia
R 10,166
D 6,789

Hillsborough
R 27,184 (40%)
D 28,638 (42%)

Lake
R 12,645
D 7,532

Lee
R 14,356
D 6,430

Manatee
R 8,461
D 4,641

Marion
R 14,061
D 6,899

Miami-Dade
R 45,984 (38%)
D 47,790 (39.5)

Nassau
R 7,461
D 1,926

Okaloosa
R 11,765
D 2,918

Orange
R 15,404
D 28,115

Palm Beach
R 19,086
D 21,604

Pasco
R 17,847
D 9,393

Pinellas
R 10,016
D 9,155

Polk
R 13,205
D 11,967

Sarasota
R 11,200
D 5,268

Seminole
R 11,915
D 11,012

St. Johns
R 18,055
D 6,680

Sumter
R 8,989
D 1,886

Volusia
R 13,645
D 9,342

Kansas
Trump 48% (+7)
Biden 41%
Jorgensen 4%

Michigan
The most accurate poll in the nation in 2016 was the RP/Trafalgar poll. They show President Trump surging ahead in Michigan.Trump 46.7% to
Biden at 44.9%.

Minnesota
Early voting is a toss up, but expect Trump win by at least 85,000 votes. Watch Ramsey and Hennepin counties. If Biden is running at, or below, Hillary’s margin in the Twin Cities, it likely won’t be enough to save him.

Trump only lost Minnesota by 44,000 votes in 2016. There are enough votes in the Iron Range and Southeast Minnesota for Trump to make up that deficit, especially if the turnout in the Twin Cities is down.

Missouri
Trump will Win.

North Carolina 
Most pundits and polls say this is Biden. I don’t believe so. They are right on pace with 2016, 2018 other recent elections. Trump should win it by at least 2 points.

New Jersey
It surprises me that voter registration trends in South Jersey favor Republicans. They could potentially flip Cumberland, Atlantic, and Burlington Counties. Camden is staying blue.

Montana
I don’t believe the polls for one second that Trump a 51% favorite there.

During the non-competitive primary 200,000 Republicans showed up to vote for Trump. That’s 50,000 more voters than all of the Democrats combined who voted in the their June primary for Biden his Democratic challengers.

Trump will win there by double digits.

Pennsylvania
Right now Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are very close, but trends in all four look favorable to Trump. Trump only needs to win Pennsylvania or one of the other three to win re-election.

When Barack Obama showed up to stump in Philadelphia Wednesday, the crowd size was lackluster. Media did not report it. 

Obama’s Philly appearance didn’t draw near as many as Democrats planned for.

Colorado
They are too far gone and will likely remain Blue. I would love to see them be the Wisconsin surprise of 2016 for Trump.

4 replies »

  1. Your assessment is very convincing. The data you have used speaks volumes. I firmly believe that the enthusiasm by the average American voter will determine the results of this election, which I believe will be proven without a doubt on election night. Many are predicting a landslide by Trump, and I think it could happen, simply based on the number of people who are cautious about displaying their support for Donald Trump. While personally, I have been very vocal about my support for our President on social media, I don’t have a Trump flag, bumper sticker or a sign in my yard, because I fear the retaliation by the “tolerant” left. Thanks for your blog!

    Liked by 1 person

    • Warren, I certainly understand as I don’t display flags, stickers, etc.But instead, I do my part by writing so thousands can get a factual point of view they might not get elsewhere. Thank you for your comment and readership. Go Trump!

      Like

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