Going into Election Day, here’s a quick status update across the nation.
Republican approval rate for President Donald Trump is at 96%. This is an all time high in history.
In 2016, around 87% of registered voters cast a ballot. Indications are 2020 will be a record breaker.
North Carolina Battleground
The media consistently says North Carolina will be won by Democrats. Here are indicators that they are wrong:
Never in North Carolina history have Republican voters led a single a day in early voting over Unaffiliated and Democrat voters.
In 2020, Republican voters have led eight of the last nine days. Trump is running about 45,000 votes ahead of 2016 pace in North Carolina when he won the state by nearly 4 points.
The latest (9:45 a.m. today) update shows Early Vote and Votes By Mail (VBM) tallies for North Carolina as 261,459 ballots cast (23,779 VBM and 237,680 in person):
Republicans: 1,378,537 (31.7% vs 31.5% prior day).
Democrats: 1,633,774 (37.6% vs 38.1% prior day).
Unaffiliated: 1,310,505 (30.2% vs 29.9% prior day).
The Republicans won the total vote yesterday 92,029 to 77,291.
Votes by Mail results will continue to come in for days after the election. This is a big question mark.
New Hampshire Battleground
New Hampshire’s under-30 share of the early vote to date is less than 4% of the total vote.
Texas is Red
No matter what the Media or Democrats tell you, Texas will remain Red–even after all the Blue harvested ballots come in.
As in-person early voting concluded in Texas, Republicans, per TargetSmart, closed out the period with a 17-point lead in all pre-Election Day ballot-casting.
Out of 254 counties in Texas, early voting shows 204 of them were Trump by 30+%. Virtually none of those are changing demographics.
The 20+% Trump counties have already voted at 103% of what they did in 2016 so there is enthusiasm. Plus those counties tend to vote mostly Election Day.
“Just to clarify, this is the greatest lead which TX-GOPers have had this entire election cycle,” Cotto Gottfried said. “It is a titanic accomplishment, needless to say. Cheers to all TX-GOP voters who made this happen!”
In Florida, there are now 5.30 million registered Democrats and 5.17 million registered Republicans in the state – an edge of about 134,000 voters in favor of the Democrats. But the size of that margin has fallen from 327,000 in 2016 and 658,000 in 2008.
Republican voters has risen by about 619,000, compared with an increase of 426,000 voters among Democrats. However, the biggest increase during since 2016 has been among those who are registered with no party (+663,000).
Pay attention to Miami-Dade County Mayor election: Esteban Bovo Jr. and Daniella Levine Cava are running for Miami-Dade County’s open mayoral office. Although the race is officially nonpartisan, organizations associated with the Republican Party have backed Bovo and organizations associated with the Democratic Party have backed Levine Cava. No Democratic-associated candidate has won election as Miami-Dade county mayor since 2004.
According to Pew Research, “around eight-in-ten Republican registered voters (79%) are Christians, compared with about half (52%) of Democratic voters.”
Out of our 7,383 state legislatures, 52.7% are Republican. Democrats sit at 46.80%.
Nationally, the state legislatures include 1,972 state senators and 5,411 state representatives.
Republican count: 3,844 state legislature seats; 1,084 state Senate seats, 2,760 House seats.
Democrat count: 3,455 state legislature seats; 875 state Senate seats; 2,580 House seats.
Independent or third-party legislators hold 34 seats, of which 30 are state House seats and four state.
Two other local battleground elections to pay close attention to:
Mayor of Portland, Oregon: Incumbent Ted Wheeler, who supported the riots in and held back police, faces challenger Sarah Iannarone and write-in challenger Teressa Raiford in a nonpartisan election for mayor of Portland. In the May 19 primary, Wheeler won 49.1% of the vote, falling short of the 50% needed to win outright. Wheeler’s endorsers include United for Portland, a group that includes the Service Employees International Union, the Portland Business Alliance, and the Portland NAACP. Iannarone’s include Our Revolution and the Oregon Progressive Party.
Los Angeles County District Attorney: Incumbent Jackie Lacey faces challenger George Gascón in a nonpartisan election to run the nation’s largest prosecutorial office. Lacey and Gascón received 48.7% and 28.2% of the vote in the top-two primary, respectively. Gascón served two terms as San Francisco’s district attorney, having first been elected in 2011.
Thirty-three states have statewide orders requiring individuals to wear masks in indoor or outdoor public spaces. All 24 states with a Democratic governor have statewide mask orders, while nine out of 26 Republican states require face coverings.