The largest 50-state poll of the 2024 cycle indicates Donald Trump would beat Joe Biden in a head-to-head race with 294 electorial votes against Democrats’ 244.
This John Zogby poll surveyed all 50 states of more than 26,000 likely voters across the country and has a margin of error of only 0.6%.
Biden cannot beat President Trump as this poll of every state shows that with the electoral votes, Biden loses in a head-to-head against Trump and he loses in a three-way (with Robert F. Kennedy) too.
Most presidential polls rely on responses from around 2,000 people. That means they have a margin of error of several percentage points.
This is the first poll of the 2024 cycle to measure the winner of each state in order to tally the electoral votes that actually determine who takes the White House.
Why does that matter? When looking back at 2016, an accurate national poll would have told you Hillary Clinton was ahead by two points — but what it wouldn’t have told you was that she was behind by 77 electoral votes and therefore would lose.
Only a 50-state poll can tell you that. The poll was fielded between April 13 and April 21 with 26,408 responses.
Trump would win with 294 Electorial Votes. Biden would end up with 244.
A quick look at three states with the largest number of electorial votes shows in a Trump v. Biden race: State, Electorial Votes, Trump %, Biden %
CA, 54, T 34.5%, B 55.6%,
TX, 40, T 49.5%, B 39.6%
FL, 30, T 42.2%, B 34.6%
Biden cannot beat President Trump. When every state is polled, and evidence is presented by a tally the electoral votes, Biden loses in a head-to-head against Trump and he loses in a three-way too.
In a three-way race between Biden, Trump and Kennedy, Kennedy’s presence shifts the states electorial votes of Maine and Virginia to Biden’s column, and no states to Trump’s column. So Kennedy’s presence helps Biden, but Biden still loses to Trump.
Even if President Trump were to drop out, Biden can’t win. In fact, if Trump did drop out, Kennedy would in a 196 electoral vote landslide.
“To be a spoiler, a candidate has to fulfill two requirements — first, they must not be able to win themselves, and, second, by participating in the election, they must prevent someone else from winning who otherwise would,” Kennedy explained.
By that criterion, the only spoiler in the race is President Biden. He is the one who cannot win against either candidate and whose presence gives Trump the victory instead of Kennedy.
If Biden were to drop out, Kennedy could win and at this point is the only scenario in which President Trump competes and loses.
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CINDY LEAL MASSEY, TEXAS AUTHOR
Clever Journeys 
If the Biden team is actually shocked, that shows how much they believe their own lies. Deluded.
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“Useful Idiot” Biden is the brain-dead barnacle of the Democratic Party. Polls like this make me uneasy as it invigorates the puppet-masters to step up whatever resources are needed to win. Legal. Illegal. It doesn’t matter to them. They live by the mantra of Malcolm X: “By any means necessary.”
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