Strange and unpredictable things about this 2020 election season may seem erratic and unstable, but reliable indicators are materializing.
These unconventional clues could help us forecast the presidential election results.
The most noticeable that I first recognized were the dozens of Trump car caravans and boating parades popping up across the country in June. In one month these events spread to 27 states. Now there are hundreds of them every week in all 50 states and expanding. They even have names like “Trumptillas” and “Trump Trains.”
Especially captivating, is the fact some of the highest participation growth is occurring in traditional Democratic areas.
Followers of Texas politics are seeing hundreds (like close to a thousand) of vehicles lining up in parade-like caravans in places like Laredo, Harlingen and McAllen–along the southern border.
Here are more quick examples:
The farming and agriculture industry generally favors President Trump’s successes with trade deals that support their hard work and productivity.
Every agriculture trade source I could find overwhelmingly says Trump’s deals with foreign countries were good. Even with the COVID summer they see he provided a short-term plan for long-term gain.
Farmers are savvy to Joe Biden’s closeness to China. Successful Farming says “China shut out U.S. beef for 14 years over a mad cow scare in 2003, keeping the ban more than a decade after other countries like Japan and South Korea lifted theirs.”
“The Chinese do not play by the rules,” one Illinois farmer was quoted by the magazine. “They cancel shipment orders that are not in their favor. They continue to steal our patents. Only President Trump has tried to stop these unfair trade practices.”
Now here is where it gets really interesting. Not only are our farmers becoming more profitable, they are far more appreciated by Americans than ever before.
The Gallups annual poll of approval ratings for 25 American Industries was just released and shows Agriculture and Farming at the top of the list FOR THE FIRST TIME.
They have a 69% positive approval rating by Americans. Only 11% say negative and 19% are neutral.
The Grocery Industry has shot up to second place: Positive 63%, Negative 12%, Neutral 24%.
Restaurant Industry is Positive 61%, Negative 15%, and Neutral 24%.
The top three all favor President Trump. However…
The Federal Government (think Congress, according to the research) is at the bottom of the list with Positive 30%, Negative 50%, 20% Neutral.
Second from the bottom is a Democratic politician favorite. “Big Pharma,” the Pharmaceutical Industry is Positive 34%, Negative 49% and Neutral 17%.
Even the Movie Industry is so low, they’ve stooped below the Lawyers (who are rated 34% Positive, 28% Negative and 38% Neutral). Hollywood is rated Positive 37%, Negative 33%, and Neutral 30%.
Guess which industries favor Biden?
Television and Radio are barely above Lawyers. They have plunged to Positive 41%, Negative 35% and Neutral 24%.
September’s Emmys with host Jimmy Kimmel was the least watched and lowest rated Emmys ever with 6.1 million viewers. Even Celebrity Family Feud had 5 million.
The most telling could be the Sports Industry. Normally near the top, they are THIRD FROM THE BOTTOM. A touch above Big Pharma, they are Positive 30%, Negative 41% and Neutral 29%.
Three weeks out, no matter how media tries to spin it, the National Football League’s numbers are spiraling. President Trump could be on to something when he tweeted last week.
“We have plenty of politics to go around without disrespecting our great American Flag or Anthem,” he stated. “I thought the NFL learned their lesson two years ago. The people will not put up with this (again). Just not worth it, hard to watch!”
This week’s Monday Night Chiefs-Ravens NFL game drew 14.02 million viewers, while Sunday night’s Green Bay and New Orleans, had a 4 percent drop to 17.80 million. This is not good.
How does this play into the Trump and Biden constituencies?
In their first presidential debate Tuesday night they drew in a whopping 73.1 million TV and channel viewers. Online streaming could add 12-15 million more.
As painful as it was to watch, viewership surpassed the 67 million people that watched the first debate of the 2012 general election with the last incumbent President Barack Obama.
Fox News averaged 17.8 million total viewers, to be far above other televised networks. Other networks debate viewership were:
ABC, averaged 9.7 million total viewers.
CNN averaged 8.3 million.
MSNBC averaged 7.2 million total viewers.
The second debate will take place in Miami on Oct. 15 with C-SPAN’s Steve Scully as the moderator.