People often ask which presidential election poll is best. My answer is Brad Parscale’ s team is quite accurate. He ran the Trump Campaign polling to victory in 2016 and has improved their abilities considerably for this election. He especially concentrates on the electoral votes.
Of course, the public is not privy to Parscale’s pinpoint accuracy, but we can generally determine hotspots by where Trump travels. His rallys, personal appearances and visit provide clues of where he’s needed to build and raise votes–for himself and political allies. It’s not just the presidency at stake. He needs to keep the Senate and increase the amount of Republican representatives in the House.
Historically, Gallup was the poll most trusted for years until they sold out to Obama in 2014. They’re still polling, but not for presidential elections. I’m amazed how many people still believe in them and the political media after their disgraceful fiascos in 2016.
For the popular vote (not electoral college) Rasmussen is about the best of mainstream pollsters. In 2016, they had Hillary Clinton up 1.7 points over Trump on election day. With final counts in, she had was 2.1 points over Trump (48.2% vs. 46.1%). But it’s the electoral college votes that count in the end.
In July, Rassmussen reported Joe Biden was 10-points ahead of President Trump. Today Biden is only one point ahead and within the margin of error, not even as good as Clinton was on election day 2016.
Beside polls from mainstream media or the same unreliable polsters from 2016 and 2018 , not much else of significance indicates a Democrat win in the 2020 presidential election.
Undecided voter numbers are far less than in 2016. Some analysts say it’s at least half. Most of those are referred to by media pundits as
‘low information’ voters. In 2016, Hillary Clinton called a portion of them ‘Deplorables,’ wrapping them up in the same category as 63 million Americans she despised.
But the problem with even those who normally don’t have strong feelings or pay much attention to current events and politics, is they have just experienced months of wearing masks, standing in lines for toilet paper in fear of Antifa zombies lurking out from under highway overpasses to around the corner with no police officers allowed to protect them.
Democratic leaders, mayors, county judges and city councils either nod or stoke the fires, and…their platform is not even American anymore.
After Democrats showed their cards and hoaxes with Kauvenaugh, Dossier, Russian Probe, Amnesty fiasco, Mueller report, Comey, etc., all were proven wrong. This caused losses of base voters.
Undecided voters were a significant cause of Americans watching CNN, MSNBC and other election experts cry live on air in 2016. They practically swore to us about 20 percent of voters were undecided and likely to vote Blue. Swing States rolled in, proving once again, how inaccurate and bias media has become. Nothing has changed much except they’ve turned up the biased and untrue rhetoric.
“And they still didn’t and haven’t learned their lesson,” said Ted Molars, a former Democrat who joined the Texas Trump Train in 2018.
Estimates are being thrown around that there are between 3 million to 22 million undecided voters out there. It’s all either speculative science or propagandized polling. No one knows.
Trump has grown his base since he was elected to over 87 percent, the highest level in the modern era, except when George W. Bush had a temporary increase in the immediate aftermath of 9/11.
But there are indicators, other than experts on the liberal echo bubble The View or even nutcases like Don Lemon, we can rely more on…far more.
Here are 11 strong indicators:
Eleven Strong Indicators
1. In the first seven months of 2020, five million Americans became first-time gun owners, FBI’s National Instant Background Check System. The National Shooting Sports Foundation calculated more than 12 million guns were purchased, a historical record. That’s 70 percent over the same time span in 2019.
A simple question provides insight. Do Democrats support the 2nd Amendment, the NRA and American gun owners?
There are 5,000,000 FIRST TIME legal owners. If they’re compelled to go out and buy a gun, they are likely to make the effort to vote–so they can keep them.
2. There is a grassroots phenomenon spreading across America breaking historical records. Parades and caravans in lakes, bays, rivers and intercoastal waterways are popping up throughout the United States. On literally hundreds of highways, city loops, rural roads and Main Street parades, thousands of Americans are uniting in support of a sitting president, the likes of which have never been seen.
3. After Trump’s election, all economic, military, VA, jobs, immigration, infrastructure improvements and other results were amazing. The list of his accomplishments are historical: Jerusalem, Border Wall, Energy Independence, Soldiers came home from Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria; Korean Rocketman gives in, Black-Hispanic-Asian Americans and Females achieved historical and record breaking employment achievements. People saw him restore dignity in work.
4. Trump rallies are historical record breakers. Dems have never been near those levels…ever. Even though social distancing and pandemic concerns have slowed them down, the patriotic enthusiasm hasn’t.
5. Trump received 11% of Black vote in 2017. Indicators show that could double in November. If that happens, it will be monumental.
Trump has been strong in African American issues like prison reform, cracking down on dangerous gang activity and pardoning those wrongfully imprisoned.
Joe Biden’s misspeaks are turning more of Black America against him. His sincerity towards them is in serious question. “If you don’t vote for me then you are not black” is not exactly the kind of thing you say to motivate African-Americans to vote in your favor.
Latino, Hispanic and Asian Americans reached historic employment and economic highs with Trump.
Nationally, Hispanics think the Democrats are more of a threat to our economy (Democrat threat 66%/ GOP threat 34%).
6. Trump campaign contributions are coming in from individuals in record breaking numbers, while the DNC/Biden rely on corporations, lobbys and growing undesirable entities that Americans are increasingly becoming more angry at: Big Pharma, Chinese businesses, Planned Parenthood, etc.
7. The only polls that came close to being correct in 2016 and 2018 are not indicating Biden is ahead. Even the latest 2020 Zogby Poll of 1,007 likely voters gave Trump a 51%-43% lead over Democrat Joe Biden. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
8. Where’s Hunter? He has some explaining to do. Joe Biden’s pride and joy, son Hunter Biden is negative baggage to the campaign. Daddy Biden, who will be 78 in November, has been “Hiden'” in the basement and it’s unlikely he’ll dare come out to debate President Trump.
Only the die-hard Democratic base, the “Sheep,” will believe the excuses: COVID, “Trump-will-lie so-what-differencs-does-it-makd-anyway” type of hype.
9. The Barr-Durham investigation is closing in on Deep State Swamp Creatures. Expect hissy fits from the Media–and at least Jerry Nadler–as evidence, arrests and indictments appear in September and October.
10. End of summer Swing State data from party locals and Trump’s data guru Greg Parscale is favorable.
The GOP has revamped their recruiting, voter registration and on-the-ground organization to new levels of attainment.
One example is Pennsylvania where the rate of new voter registration for the GOP is five times that of Democrats. Lawrence Tabas, the chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, predicts that Trump will beat Biden by more than 100,000 votes — more than twice the margin he had in 2016.
Most GOP local campaign headquarters are farther ahead now than they were this time in 2016. Phillip Stephens, GOP chairman in Robeson County, N.C., who helped turn the state Red then, says now “We’re thinking landslide.”
Very good indicators are showing favorability for Trump from state campaign chairs Andrew Hitt in Wisconsin, Jennifer Carnahan in Minnesota, Jane Timken in Ohio, Doyle Webb of Arkansas, and
Kyle Hupfer in Indiana.
More state polls just out (August 20, 2020):
Alabama: Trump 56, Biden 40
Georgia: Trump 49, Biden 46
Kentucky: Trump 60, Biden 34
Michigan: Trump 50, Biden 45
Montana: Trump 52, Biden 42
North Carolina: Trump 49, Biden 46
Texas: Trump 49, Biden 45
Wyoming: Trump 56, Biden 42
11. Other data (within and outside of the GOP camp) show Trump is crushing Biden among union workers (61% to 35%), Born Again Christians (Trump 68%/Biden 28%), NASCAR fans (Trump 68%/Biden 29%), Voters who recently lost their job (Trump 58%/Biden 34%), Men (Trump 57%/Biden 39%), Women (Trump 48%/Biden 45%) think Trump will win, Voters living in the East (Trump 49%/Biden 45%), South (Trump 53%/Biden 42%), and Central/Great Lakes (Trump 56%/Biden 38%).
In the meantime, Blue states (think Cuomo, Newsom, Whitmer and Brown) that have chosen to be left behind (economically, highly restrictive of freedoms/rights, soft on crime-terrorism-rioting and illegal immigration), are now struggling more as their citizens see Red states prospering more. And who is going to be begging the rest of America to bail them out?
Democrat mayors’ and governors’ ploys are backfiring. Growing resentment is causing them to be defied by some of their own constituents. These voters who are understanding the President’s results and leadership.
Those who have trouble believing or comprehending should talk to Blue-State and city small business owners, barbershops, beauty salons and restaurants.
Most Red-States and cities allow businesses to serve clients without the fear and threats of fines or arrest. Churches are holding services. Local Sheriffs, whose citizens support their funding and protection, are refusing to arrest violators.
Murder rates and other crimes are rising generally in Blue States and key Democratic controlled cities.
Leftists have earned a reputation as being more interested in popularity than in peace and order. Opportunistic plots show their politics is more important than their constituents stability.
Finally, one of the best indicators comes from Stony Brook University Professor Helmut Norpoth. He’s the man who developed a model that has correctly predicted five of the past six elections since 1996, and every single election but two in the past 108 years.
Norpoth says his model shows that Trump has a 91 percent chance of winning — as close to a guarantee as you can get.
His model also indicates that Trump will get 362 electoral votes, which is far more than the 304 he earned in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.
The two elections he missed were John F. Kennedy’s 1960 victory over Richard Nixon, which was one of the most closely contested elections in American history… and George W. Bush’s 2000 victory over Al Gore, where Bush actually lost the popular vote.